\subsection{Simulations and projections} \label{subsec:physics.gpd.simu_proj} In order to calculate projected statistical accuracies for the proposed measurements, the following parameters and assumptions were used: \bi \item a polarised muon beam with an energy of 160~GeV, \item a 48~s SPS period with a 9.6~s spill duration (flat top), \item a $\mu^+$ beam intensity of $4.6 \times 10^8$ muons per spill, \item a three times lower intensity for the $\mu^-$ beam, \item a new liquid hydrogen target of 2.5~m length (Sect.~\ref{subsec:upgrades.LH2_RPD.LH2}), yielding a luminosity of about $10^{32}~\mathrm{cm}^{-2}\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ for the $\mu^+$ beam, \item a new Recoil Proton Detector (RPD) surrounding the target (Sect.~\ref{subsec:upgrades.LH2_RPD.RPD}), \item an as continuous as possible polar and azimuthal photon detection coverage provided by the two existing electromagnetic calorimeters ECAL1 and ECAL2 (Sect.~\ref{sec:upgrades.ECALs}), \item a new large-angle calorimeter ECAL0 (Sect.~\ref{subsec:upgrades.ECALs.ECAL0}), \item an overall ``global'' efficiency of $\epsilon_{global}=0.1$ including detection, tracking and reconstruction of events comprising an incoming and scattered muon, a high-energy photon and a recoiling proton within the RPD acceptance as well as beam and spectrometer availabilities (Sect.~\ref{subsec:physics.gpd.validation}), \item a running time of 280~days (70~days with $\mu^+$ and 210~days with $\mu^-$, in order to have as close as possible integrated luminosities for both data sets). \ei % The acceptance for exclusive single-photon production is determined using the standard \compass\ program for reconstructing the simulated DVCS and BH events. % Hard exclusive single-photon production, \ie\ the interfering Bethe--Heitler and DVCS processes, is simulated employing two separate codes using two generators for the DVCS amplitude: one is based on the VGG model~\cite{Vanderhaeghen:1999xj} and the other one on the Frankfurt--Freund--Strikman (FFS) model, which was modified for the proposed experiment~\cite{A-Sandacz}. The conditions listed above will allow for an accumulation of at least 300 DVCS events for those bins, in which the number of DVCS events reaches at least 10\% of the number of BH events and for which $Q^2 \le 8~\GeV^2$, as shown in Table~\ref{tab:physics.gpd.simu_proj_nbevts}. Such statistics are sufficient to perform a 2-dimensional analysis of the $t$-slope measurement with 6~bins in $t$ and 5~bins in $\phi$ (Sect.~\ref{subsubsec:physics.gpd.simu_proj.t-slope}). It is worth noting that an increase in the number of muons per spill by a factor of 4 would extend the range in $Q^2$ up to about 16~GeV$^2$. %%%%%%%%%[Tables for BH, DVCS and acceptance for VGG]%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{table}[tbp] \caption{Number of BH/DVCS events in $6 \times 4$~bins in $x_B$ and $Q^2$ for $0.05 \leq y =E_{\gamma^\ast}/E_{\mu} \leq 0.9$ projected for 280~days (70~days with $\mu^+$ and 210~days with $\mu^-$) with a global efficiency of 0.1 and using ECAL0, ECAL1 and ECAL2. The numbers of DVCS events are obtained using the VGG model. The modified FFS model yields numbers of DVCS events smaller by a factor 0.7. The geometrical acceptance for single-photon detection is indicated for each bin between parentheses. Bins containing at least 300~DVCS events, which also have to represent not less than 10\% of the number of BH events, are marked by an asterisk.} \label{tab:physics.gpd.simu_proj_nbevts} \begin{center} \scalebox{0.90}{ \begin{tabular}{|c||c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline \raisebox{-1mm}{$Q^2/$} & $0.005 \leq x_B $\strut & $0.01 \leq x_B $ & $0.02 \leq x_B $ & $0.03 \leq x_B $ & $0.07 \leq x_B $ & $0.13 \leq x_B $\\ $\GeV^2$ & $ \leq 0.01$ & $ \leq 0.02$ & $ \leq 0.03$ & $ \leq 0.07$ & $ \leq 0.13$ & $ \leq 0.27$\\ \hline \hline $8 \leq Q^2 $ & - & - & - & 3280 / 51 & 1032 / 84 & 190 / 120 \\ $ \leq 16 $ & & & & (0.88) & (0.91) & (0.93) \\ \hline $4 \leq Q^2 $ & - & 2512 / 18 & 4176 / 78 & 2371 / 309$^*$ & 269 / 347$^*$ & 66 / 501$^*$ \\ $ \leq 8 $ & & (0.86) & (0.87) & (0.90) & (0.94) & (0.94) \\ \hline $2 \leq Q^2 $ & 6577 / 36 & 15258 / 368 & 1848 / 374$^*$ & 1050 / 1257$^*$ & 153 / 1466$^*$ & 29 / 933$^*$ \\ $\leq 4 $ & (0.86) & (0.86) & (0.90) & (0.93) & (0.94) & (0.97) \\ \hline $1 \leq Q^2 $ & 44749 / 627 & 7684 / 1338$^*$ & 1187 / 1270$^*$ & 771 / 4420$^*$ & 68 / 2000$^*$ & - \\ $\leq 2 $ & (0.86) & (0.86) & (0.90) & (0.93) & (0.94) & - \\ \hline \end{tabular} } \end{center} \end{table} The acceptance for single-photon detection is seen to be always larger than 86\%. It has to be noted that without ECAL0 the acceptance is smaller by a factor of two in the bin $0.07 \leq x_B \leq 0.13$ and by a factor of seven in the bin $0.13 \leq x_B \leq 0.27$. The choice of 160~GeV for the muon beam energy bears the advantage that there will be a sufficiently large number of ($x_B,Q^2$) bins where the DVCS contribution dominates over the BH one. The price to pay is the relatively low intensity of the $\mu^-$ beam at this energy. At a later date, measurements are envisaged using a transversely polarised NH$_3$ target (Sect.~\ref{subsubsec:physics.gpd.simu_proj.TTSA}) which are planned to be described in more detail in an addendum to this proposal. %================== =========================================================== \subsubsection{The $t$-slope of the DVCS cross section} \label{subsubsec:physics.gpd.simu_proj.t-slope} % For the parametrisation of the $x_B$ dependence of the $t$-slope parameter $B(x_B)$ introduced in Sect.~\ref{subsec:physics.gpd.intro}, the simple ansatz $B(x_B) = B_0 + 2 \, \alpha' \, \log(\frac{x_0}{x_B})$ is sufficient when disregarding the case $x_B \rightarrow 1$ that is of no interest here. In this parametrisation, the $x_B$-slope $\alpha'$ is a measure for the decrease in nucleon size with increasing $x_B$. % Note that $x$ and $x_B$ coincide here. % %In dipole models, %~\cite{xxx}, %$B(x_B)$ is related to the transverse %distribution of partons carrying the longitudinal momentum fraction %$x$, $B(x) \sim 1/2 \, \langle {\rm r} _\perp^2 \rangle (x)$. %This relation does %not apply to non-factorised models if the amplitude has a non-vanishing real %part. The \compass\ $x_B$ region is uncharted territory also for the $t$-slope parameter $B(x_B)$. Data on $B(x_B)$ exist only for smaller $x_B$ values, namely for the \hera\ collider range $10^{-4} < x_B <10^{-2}$~\cite{Aktas:2005ty,:2007cz,Chekanov:2008vy}. Above the \compass\ $x_B$ range, in the valence region, no experimental determinations of $B(x_B)$ exist. The only information comes from fits adjusted to form factor data which give $\alpha' \simeq 1~\GeV^{-2}$~\cite{Diehl:2004cx,Guidal:2004nd}. In this situation, the values $B_0=5.83~\GeV^{-2}$, $\alpha' = 0.125~\GeV^{-2}$ and $x_0=0.0012$ are chosen for the simulation of a $t$-slope measurement inspired by the \hera\ data. \begin{figure}[tbp] \begin{center} \includegraphics[width=160mm,clip=true]{gpd_simul_t_slope_280days_3prct_global_bis} \end{center} \caption{Projections for measuring the $x_B$ dependence of the $t$-slope parameter $B(x_B)$ of the DVCS cross section, calculated for $1